In southern Italy, supermarket shelves were partly empty in late October after lorry drivers protesting diesel costs blocked roads and ports across the region for approximately two weeks. Disruptions to transportation and warehouse operations left shops in Campania, Puglia and Calabria struggling to replenish supplies, with meat, fresh milk, fruit and bottled water among the products running short.
The latest figures from Italy's national statistics office, Istat, show that unprocessed food prices increased by 7.5% in October compared with the same month last year, up from 5.5% in September. The cost of a typical basket of food, household and personal care products also accelerated, rising 2.5%, compared with 1.5% the previous month.
The pressure extends well beyond Italy. Preliminary Eurostat figures show Eurozone inflation reaching 4% in October, its highest level in more than three years. Energy prices were the principal driver, with fuel, electricity and heating costs increasing by 20.8% year on year.
Food, alcohol and tobacco prices rose 1.6% across the Eurozone in October, while the latest figures covering all EU countries showed food and soft drink prices increasing by 0.6% in September.
The impact has been particularly pronounced in fresh food markets. Unprocessed food prices, including fruit, vegetables, meat and fish, increased by 4.6% in October, compared with 2.7% in August. By contrast, processed food, alcohol and tobacco prices recorded a more limited annual increase of 0.5%.
Nicola Nobile, chief Italy economist at Oxford Economics, said energy and food were driving the latest inflation increase, while core inflation remained broadly stable despite the energy shock.
Fresh produce is especially vulnerable to rising energy costs because agricultural machinery depends on diesel, greenhouses require heating and perishable goods must be transported quickly by road. These pressures leave producers and retailers with limited options to absorb higher operating costs.
In France, overall food prices increased by 1.2% in October, while fresh products became 8% more expensive than a year earlier, down from 9.5% in September, according to the statistics office INSEE. Germany recorded a more modest 0.4% increase in food prices, while unprocessed food prices rose 3.7% in Portugal. Spanish food prices also continued increasing in October, although at a slower annual rate.
September figures covering all EU member states showed Cyprus recording the largest increase in food and soft drink prices, at 4%, followed by Spain at 2.7%, Romania at 2.6%, Malta at 2.5% and Portugal at 2.4%.
Outside the EU, Turkey recorded an annual food price increase of 27.6%.
However, the pressure has not been uniform across Europe. Food and soft drink prices were lower than a year earlier in 14 of the EU's 27 member states. Sweden recorded the largest decline, at 6.3%, following a government decision to halve food VAT from 12% to 6% on April 1, with the reduction scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2027. Latvia, Hungary and Czechia also recorded declines ranging from 3.8% to 4.8%.
Despite these differences, the cumulative increase in food prices remains substantial. Since September 2021, when energy costs began surging, food prices across the EU have increased by approximately one-third. Hungary has recorded an increase of more than 50%, while Bulgaria, Estonia and Romania have also experienced increases exceeding that level. Luxembourg, Sweden and France have recorded increases closer to 25%.
The burden is particularly significant in countries where households spend a larger proportion of their income on food. Consequently, even relatively small price increases can place substantial pressure on family budgets in countries such as Romania and Bulgaria.
Meanwhile, the outlook for inflation remains uncertain. Pantheon Macroeconomics expects Eurozone inflation to reach 4.5% in January and anticipates that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates in December.
The latest figures indicate that renewed food price pressures are emerging as households prepare for higher winter heating bills, adding another expense to already strained household budgets.
Beyond Europe's immediate cost-of-living pressures, uncertainty over economic growth and persistent inflation expectations are also weighing on global financial markets. Government borrowing costs have risen sharply this year, confidence in the artificial intelligence boom has weakened and European economic indicators have deteriorated.
These developments have intensified concerns that inflation could remain elevated even as economic growth slows.
The political and economic consequences of the war against Iran have also become part of the wider market outlook. Hopes for de-escalation have contributed to a decline in oil prices, while the Democratic victory in the US midterm elections has raised expectations of a possible eventual end to the conflict.
Oil prices have fallen by almost 20% this week, dropping below $100 a barrel. However, analysts have warned that the outcome of the war remains uncertain, leaving the possibility of renewed increases.
Despite the recent decline, oil prices remain almost 60% higher than at the beginning of 2026, while natural gas prices are still nearly three times their level at the start of the year.