Israel’s October 27 election campaign is being increasingly dominated by a bitter dispute over military conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jews, exposing deepening fractures within the Israeli regime as it grapples with the fallout of its genocidal war on Gaza, regional conflicts and mounting economic pressures.
While the Israeli military faces personnel shortages amid its expanding military commitments, an estimated 80,000 ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, men aged between 18 and 24 are avoiding military service, turning the issue into a major political battleground.
For the Haredi Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) parties, which support Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, exemption from military service is essential to preserving their community’s religious traditions.
Their opponents, however, accuse them of evading obligations imposed on other Israelis, particularly as the military continues its operations across the region and occupation forces remain implicated in the devastation of Gaza.
The dispute has intensified divisions within Israel’s political establishment, with Netanyahu’s Likud Party and its far-right coalition facing a challenge from opposition figures seeking to capitalize on public anger over unequal military service.
In May, protests erupted over the imprisonment of draft evaders following a 2024 Supreme Court ruling requiring the military to begin drafting ultra-Orthodox men, threatening the stability of Netanyahu’s government.
The prime minister has relied on Haredi parties to maintain his parliamentary majority, offering political concessions to protect their supporters from compulsory service.
However, after Netanyahu told the parties he lacked sufficient votes to pass legislation exempting them from the draft, they pushed to dissolve the Knesset, further weakening his coalition.
On Tuesday, Netanyahu opposed the arrest of 40 Haredim who were detained for draft evasion after returning to Israel from the United States, despite legislation introduced this year that was intended to temporarily halt such arrests.
“We must preserve the world of Torah because it preserved us,” Netanyahu told the Haredi Kol Barama radio station.
“These arrests are a deliberate attempt to harm the process of drafting Haredim without coercion.”
Netanyahu’s position, however, risks deepening the rift between his ultra-Orthodox allies and other sections of Israeli society, including members of his own political camp.
A September poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 72 percent of Israelis wanted Haredim to be drafted alongside other citizens eligible for military service.
In early October, a group of Haredim clashed with Israeli forces attempting to arrest a draft evader in Modi’in, prompting condemnation from Netanyahu’s opponents.
Former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party currently holds a narrow lead over Likud, described the incident as reflecting “the same dangerous world view that seeks to make draft evasion the norm and portray those who fulfil their duty to the state as suckers”.
He added: “That is what the upcoming election is about: Netanyahu’s draft-dodging government, or a government of conscription led by me.”
The dispute has also exposed divisions within Likud, where lawmakers have warned that exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox could threaten Israel’s future.
“It is a paradox,” said Daniel Bar-Tal, a professor of psychology at Tel Aviv University.
“On the one hand, the issue of equal service unites all the secular and Zionist religious public,” he said.
“On the other side, the ultra-Orthodox are rightist … This does not go together, so [Netanyahu] has a dilemma.”
Despite growing public opposition to the exemptions, the Haredi parties have shown little willingness to compromise.
Shas and UTJ have ruled out joining any coalition that fails to pass legislation exempting members of their communities from military service, potentially making the formation of a new government more difficult.
“This is a big deal,” said Israeli pollster Mitchell Barak.
“The opposition parties are trying to pitch the election as the draft dodgers versus those who protect and serve – and that is the decisive point of the election.”
War on Gaza compounds political and economic pressures
The October 27 election will be the first since the Israeli regime launched its genocidal war on Palestinians in the Gaza Strip in October 2023, killing nearly 74,400 people and leaving most of the besieged territory in ruins, according to the source report.
The war and subsequent regional conflicts have placed mounting pressure on Israel’s public finances, while rising living costs and higher taxes have added to public discontent.
Families of reservists deployed to Israel’s war zones have also faced increased emotional and psychological strain, while household incomes have stagnated.
An August survey found that 42 percent of Israelis believed their financial situation had deteriorated since the war on Gaza began three years ago, with reservists’ families among those hit hardest.
The economic strain has intensified the dispute over military service, as those serving in the armed forces face the consequences of prolonged military campaigns while the ultra-Orthodox community continues to grow.
An estimated 1.26 million people, or 12.5 percent of Israel’s population, are Haredi.
Projections suggest that their share of the population could rise to between 20 percent and one-third by 2065, with a significant portion prioritizing religious study over military service or employment.
“The great burden of having to serve became much more pronounced – and at the same time the Haredi sector keeps growing,” said Shmuel Rosner, a senior fellow at The Jewish People Policy Institute.
“Which means that a large cohort of potential soldiers does not ease the burden on others.”
He added: “The blunt refusal of Haredi leaders to even consider a change in times of such dangers demonstrated to many Israelis that this community is one that depends on Israel financially and otherwise contributes little.”