Former US ambassador to Oman Richard Schmierer says Trump appears caught between the political risks of ending the war on Iran and the growing domestic costs of continuing it, as the conflict enters its seventh month with several US objectives still unresolved.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Schmierer said Trump appeared to be weighing the November 3 midterm elections while facing pressure from high fuel prices and public opposition to the war.
“In some respects he certainly wants to delay things until after the November 3 elections, but on the other hand the war is very unpopular. Gas and diesel prices in the US are very high,” Schmierer told Al Jazeera.
The growing costs of the conflict have also become a significant burden for Washington.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated on September 15 that the United States had spent about $38 billion on Department of Defense operational, logistical and sustainment costs related to the conflict as of August 1, including expenditures on munitions, equipment, aircraft operations and fuel.
An updated US military estimate reported by The Associated Press put the total cost of the war at $43.6 billion as of September 3, while 18 US service members had been killed and more than 830 wounded.
The conflict has also placed pressure on US weapons stocks, with a September Congressional Research Service summary citing Pentagon assessments of strategic inventory shortfalls and bottlenecks in replenishing some munitions.
At the same time, the war has failed to produce the rapid resolution initially suggested by the Trump administration.
When Trump launched the military aggression on February 28, he forecast that the conflict would last roughly four to five weeks.
Six months later, there was still no clear exit agreement, while US policy had increasingly shifted from large-scale military operations toward economic pressure and negotiations.
The gap between Washington’s stated objectives and the situation on the ground has become increasingly apparent.
While US and Israeli regime strikes significantly damaged Iranian military infrastructure, Iran retained the ability to launch missiles and drones and continued to exert pressure around the Strait of Hormuz.
An Associated Press assessment in June found that one of Washington’s central objectives — eliminating Iran’s missile capability — had not been fully achieved, with the US military acknowledging that Iran retained the capacity to continue attacks on US assets and bases in the region.
The situation around the Strait of Hormuz has meanwhile become a central problem for Washington.
Rather than producing a quick return to normal shipping, the conflict has required sustained US military resources to protect tanker traffic and manage the disruption.
The Washington Post reported in September that oil flows through the strait remained far below prewar levels and that US naval and air assets were being used to escort tankers, while Brent crude remained substantially above its prewar level.
These developments have complicated Washington’s attempt to present the war as a military success.
Iran has continued to resist US demands while seeking sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets and changes to the US military blockade and its policy toward Iranian oil exports.
The diplomatic position has therefore moved closer to the concessions that Washington initially presented as unacceptable.
A preliminary June memorandum of understanding, for example, included provisions allowing Iran to resume crude oil exports and providing sanctions-related relief, despite Trump’s earlier statements that sanctions would not be lifted upfront.
For Schmierer, that creates a political dilemma for Trump.
“So he has the difficult assignment of trying to sell a policy that the Americans do not support. So if the war were to end, that would be to his advantage. The question would be on what terms, and as he makes significant concessions to bring it to an end, that would also be politically difficult.”
Schmierer said Trump therefore appeared to be “stuck” between ending a costly conflict and avoiding concessions that could become politically damaging before the midterm elections.
“The problem is he has been criticised for the terms of the MoU back in June, and the terms that Iran offered are very similar to those in the MoU. So if he were, for example, to release frozen Iranian assets or to take the sanctions off of Iranian oil before the election, that could be politically vulnerable for him.
“So I think he’s trying to find the middle ground between telling the American people ‘this will all end soon’, but not actually bringing it to an end before the election.”
The result is a conflict in which Washington retains overwhelming military power but has yet to translate that power into all of the political outcomes it originally sought.
The war has imposed tens of billions of dollars in costs on the United States, caused American military casualties, strained weapons inventories and contributed to higher energy prices.
The war has therefore entered a stage in which the central question for Washington is no longer simply whether it can inflict further damage on Iran, but whether continued military pressure can produce an outcome that justifies its growing financial, military and political costs.
With the November 3 elections approaching, Trump’s dilemma is increasingly defined by the terms of an eventual settlement rather than by the ability of the United States to carry out further attacks.