The imposed war, which Trump initiated, has trapped his administration of terror in a “escalation trap,” a situation where a dominant power continues attacks with diminishing returns to demonstrate superiority.
Axios’ reporting highlights miscalculations within the Trump administration regarding Iran, suggesting the US president embarked on a course of action difficult to reverse through rhetoric or impulsive decisions.
Unlike trade tariffs that can be swiftly implemented or withdrawn, the consequences of the war with Iran are proving uncontrollable and lacking quick fixes. Iran, Axios reports, is an active participant in this equation. Trump aimed to break the Persian Gulf’s oil impasse, but he is now reportedly ensnared in an “escalation trap”.
"The fact that the Iranians are playing with the Strait of Hormuz has hardened (Trump’s) resolve," a senior former US official told Axios.
Israel, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, seeks to alter Iran's government and inflict extensive military destruction. Netanyahu has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to persuade Trump to align with its goals. Iran, Axios notes, aims to survive and demonstrate its capacity to impose military and economic pain to deter future attacks. Other countries desire the free flow of oil and commerce in the Middle East’s waters and airspace.
Axios estimates that, based on Trump’s and his aides' statements, the administration initially projected a concentrated military operation lasting four to six weeks. April 1st (day 33 of the war) represents a critical juncture for assessing the conflict. However, officials in Washington and around the world are preparing for a protracted crisis.
Barack Raavid, an Axios reporter citing three sources within the US government and allied nations, has heard indications that instability in the Middle East and potential US involvement could persist into September, even if the conflict evolves into a lower-intensity engagement. Israel has also informed journalists of its intent to strike thousands of new targets in Iran for at least another three weeks.
Despite Trump’s recent claims to the Financial Times that the US has “practically destroyed” Iran, claiming it lacks a navy, air defense, and air force, and that "everything has been wiped out," a different picture emerges behind the scenes.
Sources familiar with the situation have told Axios of a “buyer’s remorse” within Trump’s inner circle. Several key and hesitant officials apparently desired more time for deliberation. “He essentially said, ‘I just want to do this,’” the source revealed. “He vastly overestimated his ability to overthrow the government without deploying ground troops.” The source further noted that Trump had become “complacent” after the swift summer attacks on Iran and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, having witnessed several decisive and rapid victories with seemingly unmatched military prowess.
Now, Trump faces a difficult decision regarding a significant military escalation. Some officials close to him had hoped to declare victory by demonstrating rapid progress, but it remains unclear how he can convincingly do so. Another major challenge, Axios reports, is the lack of clear communication channels with Iran to achieve a sustainable agreement.
On Friday night, Trump posted on Truth Social, writing that Iran is “completely defeated” and desires a deal – but not a deal he would accept!
Axios suggests Trump might be able to withdraw from the war tomorrow, but Iranians could maintain a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and drive-up oil prices to the point where US intervention is once again necessary. According to Axios, Iran has openly stated that even if Trump decides to end the war, they can continue firing missiles and rockets to ensure that this is the end of the war not just a temporary ceasefire.