Trump’s war against Iran and sweeping tariff policies are driving up costs for American households, turning foreign policy into a growing political liability for Republicans ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, with Democrats increasingly positioned to seize control of Congress.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll published earlier this month found that 78% of Americans blame Trump’s policies for rising prices that are outpacing their earnings, underscoring the domestic consequences of his administration’s decisions abroad.

The political fallout echoes the 2006 midterms, when then president George W. Bush’s Republicans lost both chambers of Congress amid widespread opposition to the Iraq war.

This time, however, rising gasoline prices and grocery bills are intensifying voters’ frustration, making the economic consequences of Trump’s foreign policy harder for the White House to dismiss.

“The bottom line is people are experiencing the impact of Trump’s war and other policies,” said Christopher Preble, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.

“Now voters have a chance to register their discontent with how he’s dealing with all this.”

With Trump’s approval rating falling to historic lows, his administration has moved to address fuel costs ahead of the elections, including lifting sanctions on Russian diesel exports.

Critics, including some Republicans, say the decision risks reinforcing perceptions that Trump is accommodating Moscow despite the war in Ukraine.

Trump has also urged Kiev to halt strikes on Russian refineries while blaming factors beyond his control for high US gasoline prices, even as experts attribute the surge in energy costs primarily to the war on Iran, launched by the United States and the Israeli regime nearly eight months ago.

Meanwhile, Trump has pledged not to order another attack on Iran before the midterms, although reports indicate that Washington and Israel are preparing for a possible escalation afterward.

Polling shows that most Americans oppose the war, as Iran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful.

The economic and diplomatic fallout has also put Republican candidates under pressure, with some distancing themselves from Trump over the Middle East conflict, trade disputes with Canada and his campaign to pressure Ukraine.

White House spokesman Matt Middleton defended the administration, saying, "President Trump has always been clear about temporary market disruptions as a result of the conflict in Iran, but the contrast between President Trump’s economic record and Democrats’ ruinous alternative is clear."

Beyond the immediate impact on household budgets, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that most Americans believe the Trump administration’s foreign policy has damaged the country’s global standing and hurt national and household economic conditions.

Trump’s confrontational approach has strained relations with traditional allies and challenged the international order Washington helped build after World War Two, while exposing limits to US influence, analysts say.

With Democrats widely projected to gain control of the House of Representatives and the Senate increasingly competitive, Trump’s foreign policy and economic record could become decisive liabilities for Republicans as voters head to the polls.