The UK Met Office said Friday that the chances of a warm and wet autumn are around one-and-a-half to two times higher than normally expected, while the likelihood of windy conditions increases later in the season.

“Current evidence suggests conditions later this autumn and into early winter may be more unsettled than is typical for the time of year,” it noted.

The agency said the wetter conditions could increase the risk of flooding, although seasonal forecasts cannot determine exactly when or where individual events will occur.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that develops when sea-surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific become warmer than average, disrupting atmospheric circulation and influencing rainfall and temperature patterns far from the Pacific.

“The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Niño events,” said Met Office Chief Meteorologist Ian Lisk.

However, Lisk noted that El Niño is only one of several factors affecting the country’s weather and does not determine exactly what conditions will be experienced.

“We will continue to monitor developments closely and update our forecasts as confidence in the outlook evolves,” he added.

Meanwhile, the wider global outlook points to sharply contrasting impacts as the 2026 El Niño strengthens.

The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño is firmly established and expected to intensify, with a near-100% likelihood that it will persist through February 2027 and significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide.

The phenomenon is generally associated with increased rainfall and flooding in parts of South America and East Africa, while drought risks rise in regions including Australia, Indonesia, parts of South Asia and southern Africa.

In the Greater Horn of Africa, the World Meteorological Organization said the region is expected to be warmer and wetter than usual during the final quarter of 2026, when seasonal rains account for a major share of annual rainfall in several countries.

In Peru, authorities have warned that around 1.2 million people could be at risk as El Niño intensifies, particularly in regions vulnerable to flooding and mudslides.

Separately, Australia is preparing for an elevated wildfire risk as the Southern Hemisphere approaches its fire season, with authorities warning that El Niño could bring hotter and drier conditions.

The global consequences also extend beyond immediate weather hazards, with agriculture, fisheries, water supplies, energy systems and food security vulnerable to shifts in rainfall and temperature.

The World Meteorological Organization has stressed that no two El Niño events are identical and that regional outcomes depend on the interaction of El Niño with other climate drivers.

As the 2026 event strengthens, meteorological agencies are therefore focusing on early warnings and preparedness while continuing to update forecasts as the seasonal outlook becomes clearer.